Greece
A Game of Chicken:
Greece and Germay
As talks continue between Greece and its international creditors, primarily the European Commission, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the European Central Bank, during the Eurogroup meeting of Monday 16th February, a large chasm continues to separate the demands of both parties. The coalition government of Syriza (The Coalition of the Radical Left), the left-wing socialist party which fell just two seats short of an outright majority during the General Elections of January 2015, and of the Independent Greeks, a right-wing populist party with just 13 Members of Parliament, stands on one end of the metaphorical ravine of political views and continues to promote its anti-austerity economic policy. On the exact opposite side of this grand abyss, is Germany, the main European supporter of austerity. Both factions declare that they believe in a Greece within the Eurozone and that they are working together to reach a common ground. Despite these universal intentions, the only way by which this shared goal can be achieved is if the negotiations of Greece’s EU-IMF bailout agreement are successful. However, if a resolution to the current predicament is not found, the government will rapidly run out of funds and a Greek exit from the Eurozone (Grexit) will likely ensue.
The main reason for these strongly conflicting views appears to be political pandering. This occurs when politicians express views that agree with those of individuals to whom they are attempting to appeal and thus make promises that they are unable to fulfil. Both the Greek and German governments are guilty of this act. Syriza, for example, pushed its agenda of blaming austerity for the Greek people’s woes in order for the party to gain popularity before the country’s general elections, while the government of Angela Merkel promoted the view that, without strong reform, Greece will suffer further in order to not alienate the Christian Democratic Union of Germany from its conservative supporters. However, both sides will be unable to uphold these views and policies if they plan on reaching an agreement.
Another central reason for these opposing views is internal clashes within the Greek government. One of the origins of these disputes appears to be the fact that the coalition government is comprised of a right and a left-wing party which do not always agree on certain matters. Last week, for example, the Prime Minister of Greece, Alexis Tsipras, made an announcement that his government would be willing to work with the international creditors individually, and not with Troika (EU/ECB/IMF group of officials overseeing Greece’s finances). In addition to this, he suggested that, since the previous government had signed a deal with its international creditors, this deal could not be ignored and that his government “could also agree to start discussions on a new program” which would abide by up to 70% of the previous bailout’s terms. On the other hand, Panos Kammenos, the leader of the Independent Greeks party which formed the governing coalition with Syriza, announced that “The memorandum and the policy signed by the previous government is not valid” and that Greece is “done with the memorandum and the Troika”. Another example of internal strife in the Greek government exists within the party of Syriza. The MPs of the party all come from greatly differing political backgrounds. Many originate from KKE (Communist Party of Greece) splinter groups while others were previously part of PASOK (Panhellenic Socialist Movement). KKE does not agree with PASOK’s so called “bogus” version of socialism and believes the party to be more right-wing than it is left. These greatly differing political ideologies result in conflicts between MPs of the party as well as differing political views. The apparently chaotic foreign policy of Greece due to these internal disagreements has resulted in the international creditors becoming confused over the Greek government’s intentions and has widened the gorge which separates the views of Greece and Germany.
Finally, another central reason for the conflicting views of Greece and Germany is the strong patriotic fervour of both the Greek and the German people. Proof of the fervency of Greece’s population can be found in Syriza’s victory during the General Elections of January 2015. A major contributing factor to their success at the polls was their channelling of the patriotism of the Greeks when they stated that Syria will allow Greece to regain its dignity. As austerity is blamed as the main culprit in the crime of depriving the Greeks of their integrity and honour, the above principle was central in Syria’s victory. The government has thus been forced to go against the views of Germany and of the international creditors of the country.
In conclusion, due to the above reasons both Greece and Germany feel that they are unable to back down from their respective views and positions. This has resulted in a colossal game of “Chicken”. It is still uncertain which faction will back down first. However, what is certain is that both sides must compromise in order for their common goal of saving Greece to be achieved.
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Kimon Andreadis - Published Friday 3rd April 2015
Archaeology and Bureaucracy
Over the past few weeks I have been fascinated by the undoubtable historical significance of the vast Macedonian burial site being excavated at Amphipolis, in Northern Greece. Underpinning, this excitement was the vain hope that this could be the site of Alexander’s tomb though looking over the rather sad bleak, grey and scrappy hills surrounding Amphipolis it seemed unlikely. Nonetheless, I waited in anticipation for the discovery of a rather grand slab of marble, which would be finely carved with some evocative phrase such as “Here lies Alexander, ruler of men”, and a picture of a bunch of wholesome grinning pan European archaeologists surrounding it which would reverberate around the world. However, the latest news is that instead of discovering the withered bones of one of the greatest men the world has ever seen, we are instead faced with some unknown princeling or general.
You will be glad to hear that rather than simply whine and wail in anguish about the injustices of history, I think it would be more productive to study what the process of the dig at Amphipolis can tell us about Greek bureaucracy; for, I have found the secretive and painstakingly slow way the excavation has been such carried out bizarre. Such a dig should have been conducted in a way that clearly informed and involved the Greek people in a dynamic way. It should have been realised and appreciated that such discoveries are incredibly important to the Greek people, and its political significance could have been used more effectively in order perhaps to unify the country in a common interest of their illustrious past. Furthermore, the Greek government should have taken great labours to rub this discovery into the face of the Former Yugoslavic Republic of Macedonia, to undermine their illegitimate claim on this aspect of Greece’s history by reaffirming that the heartland of Ancient Macedonia was geographically situated in the North of Greece and that at the time the land that is now FYROM was inhabited by “barbarian” savages. Instead it has taken months for the excavation to even begin from the initial discovery of the marble wall that encompasses the site, and once it had only very superficial snippets of the discoveries being made were issued to the international press. If one was to look at the articles that have surfaced progressively about the dig we see that they only mention very bare descriptions of what they have found, such as a sphinx, twin caryatids, a mosaic, a marble door and most recently a skeleton, without really delving into any real detail or historical discussion. While at the same time the site itself has been closed, tightly controlled and barricaded off from the outer world, as if it was the site of an extra-terrestrial landing.
Ultimately one can only make the conclusion that these failures are due to the Greek archaeological system which is really just one part of the wider problem of the incompetence of the Greek authorities. I remember once talking to a classical archaeologist from Chicago University and a classicist from St Andrews one afternoon at Corinth, who briefly ranted about the dire state of Greek archaeology which they claim is plagued with internal rivalry, a lack of creativity and a warped desire to keep antiquities from the public eye. The archaeological excavations at Amphipolis is just one example out of many of this theory at work. Perhaps the most distressing of these incidents and one that is virtually unheard of is the treatment of incredible finds being uncovered through the creation of the metro at Thessaloniki, which are catalogued and then put away; when they should be enjoyed and appreciated by the public.
Therefore, we see that that the system that is in place is fundamentally flawed as it fails to fulfil one of the primary functions of archaeology today which Is to engage the public and ultimately uncover objects from the past in order to put them on display. As a result, though Greece is one of the richest countries in the world in terms of historical sites, ironically its archaeological practices seriously lag behind the standards of countries such as Germany and Great Britain. This has occurred as a phenomenon due to the fact that ultimately Greek archaeology has been corrupted and absorbed by unimaginative bureaucratic traditions and complex, irrational systems, which has caused it to move from being an intellectual and scientific field of study to just another facet of the dysfunctional Greek bureaucratic system.
-Harry Drake
The Effect of Political Instability on Greece's Road to Recovery
Background:
In 2014 Greece entered its sixth consecutive year of the recession that has financially crippled the country since 2008, according to EUROSTAT statistics. During this period Greece has experienced a decrease of 25% in its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) driving 1.5 million Greeks to unemployment. At its peak, unemployment was at 28% of the Greek population (October 2013) and up to 50% of people under the age of 25 years old were out of work. However, statistics published by ELSTAT in November 2014 show GDP growth in the first three quarters of 2014 (See The Economist Chart, Below). Financial and political analysts seem to agree that this upturn in the economy was mainly due to the efforts of the Tourism industry which experienced an increase in arrivals, bringing the total number of tourists that entered Greece in 2014 up to 23 million (15% increase from 2013), and the growth of internal consumption. They also agree that, although the Greek Crisis was not as deep as the USA’s Great Depression, it has lasted longer and is likely to take Greece more years to recover from.
Threats:
However, a number of serious internal and external threats to the Greek economy appear to be present. External threats can be mainly grouped into the prospects of the financial performance of the Eurozone which have deteriorated significantly in the last few months. The European Central Bank (ECB) has lowered its GDP growth projections in the Eurozone to 0.8% this year and 1.1% the next year, down from earlier forecasts of 1.3% and 1.5% respectively. This will greatly affect the economy of Greece. Additionally, the situation in Russia and the Ukraine due to the Crimean Crisis and the depreciation of the Russian Rouble dim the prospects of Russian tourism and related investments in Greece as well as exports of Greek agricultural products to these countries. However, the biggest risk to the Greece’s recovery is internal: the political instability of the country. By March 2014 the Greek parliament must agree on a new President of the Hellenic Republic for which a majority of 180 out of 300 (60%) votes by Members of Parliament (MPs) is necessary according to the Greek Constitution (Syntagma). The Greek coalition Government of Nea Dimokratia and PASOK presently has 154 MPs and it seems unlikely that it will be able to find the necessary additional votes required to elect any candidate. The main opposition parties, namely Syriza (Coalition of the Radical Left), KKE (Communist Party of Greece) and Anexartitoi Ellines (Independent Greeks), have stated that they intend to use this occasion to push the country into new Parliamentary elections by voting against any proposed candidate. New Parliamentary elections are thus likely to occur in March or April 2015. Recent gallup polls show that the left wing opposition party of Syriza is ahead of the centre-right party of Nea Dimokratia and that votes for the remaining political parties are greatly fragmented. Therefore, it is likely that no party on its own will be able to achieve a majority of 151 MPs in the potential upcoming elections in order to form a government. There could thus be a repeat election mirroring the events of May and June 2012. If this were to occur, it is possible that a period of extensive financial instability will ensue. This could result in another bank run situation during which the banks’ customers would withdraw their deposits simultaneously due to concerns about the financial situation, resulting in a lack of funds for the banks and a possible inability to return the customers’ money. In such a case, the Grexit scenario of 2012 (Exit of Greece from the Eurozone) may resurface, affecting foreign investments in the country, the stock market, and tourism bookings for 2015, and possibly driving the economy back into a recession. It is therefore imperative that the Greek political system finds a way to protect the country from such a development. However, petty politics at present dominate the political landscape of Greece and such an agreement is nowhere to be seen.
Conclusion:
In conclusion, it is clear that political instability both in Greece and abroad may have a considerable negative impact on the country’s road to recovery. Inter-party clarity and cooperation is required now that the Greek people need it the most.
- Kimon Andreadis
